温氏股份：公司事件点评报告：猪+鸡养殖成本显著下降，盈利水平逐步回暖

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1] Core Insights - The profitability level of the company is recovering, with a strong turnaround in Q2 2024, achieving a net profit of 24.86-27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 228.1-241.0% [3] - The decline in breeding costs for pigs and chickens is significant, leading to improved profit margins [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain high pig prices in the second half of 2024, supported by seasonal demand for chicken [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 12.5-15.0 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 126.7-132.0% [3] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 24.86-27.36 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 228.1-241.0% [3] Breeding Operations - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a pig output of 14.3742 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, with an average selling price of 15.32 yuan/kg, up 5.10% [4] - The comprehensive cost of pig breeding decreased from 7.8-7.9 yuan/kg in January 2024 to 7.1 yuan/kg in May 2024, contributing to improved profitability [4] Chicken Operations - The company sold 548 million chickens in the first half of 2024, a slight decrease of 1.04%, with an average selling price of 13.29 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.51% [5] - The cost of chicken breeding dropped from 6.5 yuan/kg in January 2024 to 6.0 yuan/kg in May 2024, indicating a potential for increased profitability [5][6] Debt and Cash Flow - The company is expected to improve its operating cash flow significantly, with a capital debt ratio of 63.47% as of Q1 2024, which is anticipated to decrease as the company uses surplus cash flow to repay debts [6] Revenue Forecast - The company projects revenues of 1090.78 billion yuan, 1241.02 billion yuan, and 1318.33 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.42, 1.87, and 1.72 yuan [7]