中银证券中银晨会聚焦

Key Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is facing overall pressure on downstream demand and investment intensity in 2024, but there are still structural opportunities to focus on overseas exports, demand recovery, equipment replacement, and new technologies [2] - The "old-for-new" housing policy allows buyers to lock in new homes while selling old ones, which is a policy innovation that connects the first and second-hand housing markets, promoting inventory reduction and increasing business volume for real estate companies and intermediaries [6] Mechanical Equipment Industry - Domestic demand for engineering machinery is gradually bottoming out, with support from increased infrastructure investment and policy-driven equipment replacement. Excavator sales in the first half of 2024 were 103,213 units, down 5.15% year-on-year, while domestic sales increased by 4.66% [3] - The consumer electronics sector is recovering, leading to increased demand for 3C automation equipment. The industry is nearing a replacement cycle, with new AI-enabled smartphones and PCs expected to stimulate demand [3] - The wind power equipment sector is seeing positive signals in domestic offshore wind projects, with expected construction in the second half of 2024, and overseas markets entering a new development cycle [3] - The general equipment sector is showing signs of weak recovery as the inventory cycle approaches its bottom, with improvements in downstream demand expected to drive demand for general equipment [3] Real Estate Sector - The "old-for-new" policy is primarily driven by the need to reduce inventory, with over 80 cities supporting the initiative as of July 26, 2024. The policy aims to reintegrate old properties into the market and stimulate replacement demand [6] - Various models of the "old-for-new" policy have emerged, including the "help-sell" model, where intermediaries assist in selling old homes, and the acquisition model, where government platforms directly purchase old homes [6] - The policy's effectiveness is still under evaluation, with mixed results in terms of stimulating market activity and reducing inventory. The potential sales volume from the "old-for-new" policy is estimated at 5.50 trillion yuan, representing 53% of the national residential sales volume in 2023 [6]