CHINA MOBILE(600941) 华创证券·2024-08-09 05:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China Mobile (600941) [19] Core Views - China Mobile achieved steady growth in revenue and profit in H1 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 5467.44 billion, up 3.02% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB 802.01 billion, up 5.29% YoY [19] - The company's profitability improved, with a gross profit margin of 30.81% in H1 2024, up 2.00 percentage points YoY, and a net profit margin of 14.68%, up 0.31 percentage points YoY [19] - The "second curve" of digital transformation revenue showed strong growth momentum, with mobile cloud revenue reaching RMB 50.4 billion, up 19.3% YoY, and IaaS+PaaS revenue maintaining a top-five market share [19] - Capital expenditure continued to decline, with H1 2024 capex at RMB 64 billion, accounting for 37% of the full-year plan, which is expected to enhance earnings performance [19] - The company increased its mid-year dividend to HKD 2.60 per share, up 7.0% YoY, and plans to raise the cash dividend payout ratio to over 75% of net profit within three years [19] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, China Mobile's revenue grew 3.02% YoY to RMB 5467.44 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing 5.29% YoY to RMB 802.01 billion [19] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 30.81%, up 2.00 percentage points YoY, while the net profit margin rose slightly to 14.68%, up 0.31 percentage points YoY [19] - For 2024-2026, the report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1400.59 billion, RMB 1491.47 billion, and RMB 1582.88 billion, respectively, with EPS of RMB 6.53, RMB 6.95, and RMB 7.38 [19] Market Segments - Personal market revenue declined 1.6% YoY to RMB 255.2 billion, with mobile customers exceeding 1 billion and 5G penetration reaching 51.4% [19] - Home market revenue grew 7.5% YoY to RMB 69.8 billion, with home broadband customers reaching 272 million and gigabit broadband penetration rising to 33.5% [19] - Enterprise market revenue increased 7.3% YoY to RMB 112 billion, with enterprise customers reaching 30.38 million [19] - Emerging market revenue rose 13.2% YoY to RMB 26.6 billion, driven by strong growth in digital transformation services [19] Valuation and Forecasts - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue of RMB 1067.68 billion, RMB 1131.68 billion, and RMB 1197.65 billion, with YoY growth rates of 5.8%, 6.0%, and 5.8%, respectively [19] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3% from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 1582.88 billion by 2026 [19] - The P/E ratio is projected to decline from 16x in 2024 to 14x in 2026, while the P/B ratio is expected to remain stable at around 1.6x [19]