PACIFIC BASIN(02343) 华泰证券·2024-08-09 06:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.90 [2]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of USD 57.63 million for 1H24, a year-on-year decline of 32.5%, primarily due to low charter rates and increased charter costs. The company anticipates a recovery in profitability in the second half of the year due to seasonal demand and decreasing charter costs [4][5]. - The report has adjusted the net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 downwards by 34%, 16%, and 19% respectively, reflecting the lower charter rate assumptions [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data - The closing price as of August 8 was HKD 2.16, with a market capitalization of HKD 11,343 million. The 52-week price range was HKD 1.98 to HKD 3.01 [3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past six months was HKD 69.06 million [3]. Performance Metrics - The average charter rates for the company's flexible and super-flexible vessels decreased by 9.4% and 0.1% year-on-year in 1H24, while the Baltic indices for these vessel types increased by 25% and 34% respectively [5]. - The company has locked in average daily charter rates for 3Q24 at USD 13,750 and USD 13,440 for flexible and super-flexible vessels, with a locking ratio of 87% and 98% respectively [5]. Market Outlook - The global bulk shipping volume increased by 2% year-on-year in 1H24, with specific increases in iron ore and grain shipments. The report anticipates a seasonal increase in shipping volumes in the second half of the year [5]. - The global supply of bulk carriers is expected to grow by 3.6% and 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, matching the demand growth of 3.6% and 1.2% [5]. Earnings Forecasts - The company's revenue is projected to be USD 2.398 billion in 2024, with a net profit forecast of USD 134 million, reflecting a 22.49% increase from the previous year [6]. - The report indicates a decrease in earnings per share (EPS) from USD 0.14 in 2022 to USD 0.02 in 2023, with a gradual recovery to USD 0.04 by 2026 [6][13].