7月通胀点评：消费品价格超预期上行，但工业品价格偏弱

Inflation Overview - July CPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, with core CPI rising 0.4% year-on-year[2] - Food prices significantly impacted CPI, with fresh vegetables and eggs rising 9.3% and 4.4% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.20 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Non-food prices also rose due to strong summer travel demand, with airfares, tourism, and hotel prices increasing more than the historical average, contributing about 0.24 percentage points to CPI[4] PPI Analysis - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with production materials down 0.3%[10] - Major industries contributing to PPI decline included non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting, collectively pulling down PPI by approximately 1.25 percentage points[10] - Weak demand in the production sector suggests continued pressure on industrial prices, with expectations for PPI to remain under pressure in the coming months[11] Market Outlook - CPI is expected to remain stable in August and September due to ongoing weather and travel factors, but a rise is anticipated in Q4 as base effects come into play[4] - The overall inflation trend indicates that while CPI may rise, PPI's potential for recovery appears limited due to high base effects and weak external demand[11] - Risks include slow global inflation decline, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US, and complex international situations[12]