Homa(002668) 广发证券·2024-08-09 10:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Smart Home is "Accumulate" with a current price of 8.75 CNY and a fair value of 11.06 CNY [2]. Core Views - The report highlights strong external sales and structural improvements driving profit growth. The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit increases in the coming years, with a projected net profit of 9.2 billion CNY in 2024, growing to 11.4 billion CNY by 2026 [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - 2022A: 11,663 - 2023A: 15,180 (YoY +30.1%) - 2024E: 17,418 (YoY +14.7%) - 2025E: 19,401 (YoY +11.4%) - 2026E: 21,341 (YoY +10.0%) [5][7] - Net Profit (CNY million): - 2022A: 464 - 2023A: 787 (YoY +69.4%) - 2024E: 923 (YoY +17.3%) - 2025E: 1,033 (YoY +11.9%) - 2026E: 1,144 (YoY +10.8%) [5][7] - EBITDA (CNY million): - 2022A: 1,254 - 2023A: 1,993 - 2024E: 2,413 - 2025E: 2,756 - 2026E: 3,046 [5][7] - EPS (CNY/share): - 2022A: 0.43 - 2023A: 0.73 - 2024E: 0.85 - 2025E: 0.95 - 2026E: 1.06 [5][7] - P/E Ratio: - 2022A: 12.35 - 2023A: 9.05 - 2024E: 10.28 - 2025E: 9.19 - 2026E: 8.29 [5][7] - ROE (%): - 2022A: 47.9% - 2023A: 55.6% - 2024E: 38.4% - 2025E: 30.1% - 2026E: 25.0% [5][7] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 8.96 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, with a net profit of 560 million CNY, up 32.7% YoY. The gross margin was 23.0% [5]. - The external sales showed high growth, with the refrigeration business achieving a revenue of 7.61 billion CNY, up 21.7% YoY, and washing machines seeing a revenue increase of 46.3% YoY [5]. - The report indicates that the improvement in product structure has contributed to overall profit enhancement, with a significant increase in the proportion of external sales [5].