华峰化学：量增利稳致业绩超预期，静待行业复苏弹性显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue of 13.744 billion yuan (up 9% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.518 billion yuan (up 12% year-on-year) [2] - The growth in performance is attributed to the gradual release of new production capacity for spandex and adipic acid, as well as enhanced economies of scale despite a slight decline in gross margin [2] - The demand for spandex is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year, with the company poised to benefit from industry recovery [2] - The company is a leading player in the global spandex, adipic acid, and polyurethane raw materials market, with significant scale, technology, and cost advantages [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of 1.518 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year [2][3] - The company’s Q2 2024 revenue was 7.087 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - The gross margin slightly decreased by 1% compared to the previous year, indicating resilience in profitability despite market challenges [2] Market Outlook - The spandex demand is projected to continue its upward trend, supported by a 8.1% increase in per capita clothing consumption expenditure in China [2] - The company’s spandex sales volume in H1 2024 was approximately 190,000 tons, an 18% increase from the previous year [2] - The price gap for spandex has reached historical lows, but there are signs of recovery in Q3 2024 [2] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 3.049 billion yuan, 3.812 billion yuan, and 4.765 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.61, 0.77, and 0.96 yuan [2][3] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 12X, 10X, and 8X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2]