市场资讯晨报：债券成为资金的“避风港”，台积电业绩激增AI需求强劲

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry or companies mentioned [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the traditional 60/40 investment strategy, indicating its effectiveness as a hedge during market volatility [1]. - Concerns about economic recession are driving increased demand for bonds, which are being recognized as a safe asset amid market uncertainties [1][2]. - The report notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds is returning, suggesting that bonds are starting to play their role as a stabilizer in investment portfolios [1]. - Despite strong earnings growth in the semiconductor sector, particularly for TSMC driven by AI demand, there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth amid broader economic uncertainties [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 index experienced significant volatility, with a 3% drop due to recession fears followed by a 2.3% rise after positive unemployment data [1]. - Upcoming inflation and retail sales data are expected to provide more insights into the health of the U.S. economy, with projections for a 0.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 0.2% growth in retail sales [1]. Bond Market - The attractiveness of bonds has increased significantly, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level since mid-2023 [1]. - The report indicates that the relationship between bonds and stocks is stabilizing, with bonds regaining their role as a ballast in investment portfolios [2]. Earnings Reports - TSMC reported a 45% year-over-year increase in revenue for July, driven by strong demand for AI chips, with expectations for a 37% revenue growth in Q3 [5]. - The broader S&P 500 index, excluding major tech companies, is expected to see its first profit growth since Q4 2022, with a projected 7.4% increase [3]. - Concerns about AI investment returns are rising as major tech companies report earnings below expectations, leading to increased scrutiny of their spending on AI projects [3]. Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway significantly reduced its stake in Apple by nearly 50%, reflecting a cautious approach to market uncertainties and high valuations in tech stocks [4]. - The report suggests that investors are increasingly looking for opportunities in smaller companies as large-cap stocks face performance pressures [3].