藏格矿业：半年报点评：铜矿投资收益亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.76 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a decrease of 37.0% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.3 billion yuan, down 36.0% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of potassium chloride decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, while the average sales cost increased by 6.3%, resulting in a gross margin of 48.3%, down 16.0% year-on-year [3] - Lithium carbonate production increased by 28.89% year-on-year, with sales up 56.8%, although the average selling price dropped by 63.9% [4] - The company holds a 30.78% stake in Jilong Copper Industry, which generated a revenue of 6.117 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.778 billion yuan in the first half of the year, contributing 8.55 billion yuan to the company's investment income [5] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, proposing a cash dividend of 2.60 yuan per 10 shares and planning a share buyback of 150 to 300 million yuan [6] - Due to the decline in lithium carbonate prices, profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 2.49 billion yuan, 2.43 billion yuan, and 4.18 billion yuan respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.15 billion yuan, down 19.4% year-on-year but up 86.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 770 million yuan, down 30.6% year-on-year and up 45.1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s potassium chloride production was 522,800 tons, a decrease of 1.47% year-on-year, with sales of 540,100 tons, down 8.41% year-on-year [3] Product Insights - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,265.4 yuan per ton, while the average selling price of lithium carbonate was 9.4 yuan per ton [3][4] - The company is progressing with the Mali Mico project, having completed site selection and preliminary land leveling [4] Future Outlook - The second phase of Jilong Copper Industry is expected to begin trial production in Q1 2026, with projected annual copper production of 300,000 to 350,000 tons [5] - The company anticipates significant growth from multiple projects, including Jilong Copper, Mali Mico, and Laos potassium fertilizer [7]