Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for imports with a score of +3, while exports received a score of 0, reflecting weaker performance [2]. Core Insights - China's export value growth was 7.0% year-over-year in July, which was below expectations, while import value growth was 7.2%, exceeding consensus forecasts [3][5]. - The trade surplus decreased to US99 billion in June, indicating a decline in export performance [5][9]. - Import strength was attributed to more working days in July this year compared to last year, contributing to a sequential growth of 4.0% in imports [5][6]. Summary by Category Export Performance - Year-over-year export growth moderated to 7.0% in July from 8.6% in June, with a sequential decline of 2.0% non-annualized [3][5]. - Exports to major trading partners showed mixed results, with exports to the US rising by 8.1% year-over-year and to the EU by 8.0% [6][10]. - Tech-related products, such as chips and automobiles, saw notable growth, with chip exports increasing by 27.7% year-over-year [7][11]. Import Performance - Import growth accelerated significantly to 7.2% year-over-year in July, compared to a decline of 2.3% in June, with a sequential increase of 4.0% [3][5]. - The most significant increases in imports were seen in automobiles, which rose by 17.3% year-over-year, and chips, which increased by 14.9% [8][12]. - Import value rose across major trading partners, with notable improvements from the US and EU [6][11].
China：Import growth surprised to the upside in July
Goldman Sachs·2024-08-12 07:27