MILKYWAY(603713) 国泰君安·2024-08-12 23:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with a continuous recovery in global freight forwarding and distribution businesses. The EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 3.48, 4.35, and 5.30 CNY respectively. The target price is adjusted to 55.71 CNY from the previous 64.72 CNY, based on a 16x PE for 2024 [3][4]. - In Q2, the company achieved a revenue of 30.97 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.86%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.60 billion CNY, showing a significant decline of 77.95% year-on-year and 80.99% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 59.92 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 32.35%, with a net profit of 3.11 billion CNY, up 22.74% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 10.88% in Q2, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points year-on-year, but an increase of 0.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 5.70%, down 1.05 percentage points year-on-year and 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The global freight forwarding business (MGF) generated revenue of 16.12 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 46.83%, while the distribution business (MCD) achieved revenue of 26.62 billion CNY, up 47.94% year-on-year [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is building a one-stop chemical logistics service and has established a global layout. As of mid-2024, it manages over 600,000 square meters of specialized chemical warehouses across China and is expanding its transportation capabilities for various types of chemical products [3][4]. - The market for hazardous chemical logistics in China is estimated to reach 2.38 trillion CNY in 2023, with the company’s revenue still representing a small fraction of this market, indicating significant growth potential [3][4].