中国生物制药：创新药销售再创新高，降本增效有望加速释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 5.5 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's 1H24 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching RMB 15.87 billion, representing an 11.1% year-over-year increase and a 33.2% quarter-over-quarter increase. The growth was primarily driven by innovative drug sales, which hit a record high of RMB 6.13 billion, up 14.8% year-over-year and 34.7% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain a double-digit revenue and profit growth guidance for 2024, supported by cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures that are anticipated to accelerate in the coming years [1][2]. - The innovative drug segment is projected to contribute significantly to revenue, with expectations of reaching RMB 12 billion in sales for the year, accounting for over 40% of total revenue [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H24, the adjusted net profit was RMB 1.54 billion, reflecting a 14% year-over-year increase and a 23.6% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by higher-than-expected revenue and improved gross margins [1]. - The company expects to maintain a double-digit growth trajectory for both revenue and profit over the next three years, with innovative drug revenue expected to grow at a high double-digit rate [1][4]. - The report highlights a slight decrease in the overall R&D expense ratio to 16.2%, indicating improved efficiency in the use of R&D funds [1][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for the company are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 29.77 billion (up 13.6% year-over-year) - 2025E: RMB 33.45 billion (up 12.4% year-over-year) - 2026E: RMB 37.46 billion (up 12% year-over-year) [3][4]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is expected to be: - 2024E: RMB 2.96 billion - 2025E: RMB 3.42 billion - 2026E: RMB 3.97 billion [3][4]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The innovative drug sales are expected to continue driving growth, with the company anticipating the approval of five new innovative drugs by 2025, which could increase the innovative drug revenue to approximately 45% of total revenue [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong commercialization capabilities, which are expected to enhance market share for its innovative drugs [1].