Toly Bread(603866) 西南证券·2024-08-16 04:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Taoli Bread (603866) with a target price of —— yuan for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - Revenue pressure persists, but profitability improved in Q2 2024 [1] - The company achieved revenue of 3.02 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 290 million yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.62 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 14.2% year-on-year to 170 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Bread products contributed 2.99 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 5.4% year-on-year [1] - Regional revenue performance: North China (700 million yuan, -6.7%), Northeast China (1.15 billion yuan, -12.3%), East China (990 million yuan, -3.4%), Central China (100 million yuan, -2.9%), Southwest China (370 million yuan, +0.2%), Northwest China (210 million yuan, -3.5%), South China (220 million yuan, -14.4%) [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross margin improved to 24.2% in H1 2024, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Q2 2024 gross margin reached 25.1%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net profit margin for H1 2024 was 9.6%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2024 net profit margin at 10.8%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] Capacity and Expansion - The company has production bases in 22 regions with a total capacity of 237,000 tons as of H1 2024 [1] - New production bases under construction in Guangxi, Changchun, Henan, Shanghai, and Foshan are expected to add 224,000 tons of capacity [1] Financial Forecast - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: 600 million yuan, 660 million yuan, and 740 million yuan respectively [2] - Estimated EPS for 2024-2026: 0.37 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.46 yuan respectively [2] - Forecasted PE ratios for 2024-2026: 15x, 14x, and 13x respectively [2] Historical Performance - 2023 revenue growth: 1.08% [3] - 2023 net profit growth: -10.31% [3] - 2023 ROE: 11.28% [3] Future Projections - Expected revenue growth for 2024-2026: 2.36%, 6.56%, and 6.13% respectively [3] - Projected net profit growth for 2024-2026: 4.25%, 11.09%, and 10.78% respectively [3] - Forecasted ROE for 2024-2026: 11.33%, 12.02%, and 12.70% respectively [3]