BABA(09988) 浦银国际证券·2024-08-19 01:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US) with a target price of HKD 85 for the Hong Kong-listed shares and USD 87 for the US-listed shares [30][31] Core Views - Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall (T&T) market share remains stable, with international e-commerce losses narrowing sequentially [29] - Cloud business is expected to recover, with external cloud revenue projected to return to double-digit growth in the second half of FY25, driven by AI-related products [25] - FY1Q25 revenue of RMB 2432 billion grew 4% YoY, missing market expectations by 2 6%, while adjusted net profit of RMB 407 billion declined 9% YoY but exceeded market expectations by 7 3% [15] - Alibaba repurchased approximately USD 5 8 billion in shares during FY1Q25, reducing ordinary shares by 2 3% compared to the previous quarter [15] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 868 687 million in FY23 to RMB 1,153,387 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 7 3% [1] - Gross profit is expected to increase from RMB 318,992 million in FY23 to RMB 461,355 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 10 0% [1] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to rise from RMB 141,379 million in FY23 to RMB 188,825 million in FY27E, with a CAGR of 7 5% [1] - The adjusted target P/E ratio is expected to decline from 10 2x in FY25E to 8 1x in FY27E [1] Segment Performance - T&T revenue declined 1% YoY to RMB 932 billion in FY1Q25, with customer management revenue (CMR) growing only 1% YoY and direct sales revenue dropping 9% YoY [29] - International commerce revenue grew 32% YoY to RMB 293 billion in FY1Q25, with AliExpress Choice showing strong performance and Lazada achieving its first monthly EBITDA profit in July [29] - Cloud revenue increased 6% YoY to RMB 265 billion in FY1Q25, driven by double-digit growth in public cloud and triple-digit growth in AI-related products [25] Valuation and Market Data - Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares (9988 HK) have a current price of HKD 76 4, with a 52-week range of HKD 64 0-93 1 and a market cap of HKD 1,547,639 million [2] - Alibaba's US-listed shares (BABA US) have a current price of USD 79 5, with a 52-week range of USD 66 0-95 8 and a market cap of USD 192,342 million [31] - The 3-month average daily trading volume for Hong Kong-listed shares is HKD 3,405 4 million, while for US-listed shares, it is USD 1,061 9 million [2][31]