JD HEALTH(06618) 国信证券·2024-08-19 10:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Health (06618.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [2][3][7] Core Views - JD Health's revenue growth is stable, with a 5% year-on-year increase in H1 2024, achieving a total revenue of 28.3 billion yuan. The growth is driven by a 3% increase in product revenue and a 12% increase in service revenue [1][5] - The company's non-IFRS net profit margin improved from 9.0% to 9.3% year-on-year, benefiting from increased other income, although adjusted operating profit margin decreased from 6.4% to 5.6% due to rising fulfillment and sales costs [1][5] - The growth in GMV is primarily driven by an increase in active buyers and purchase frequency, with 181 million annual active users as of H1 2024, representing a 7% year-on-year growth [1][5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for JD Health from 2024 to 2026 are 57.4 billion, 63.8 billion, and 70.8 billion yuan, respectively, with adjustments of -7%, -11%, and -14% due to a weak consumption environment and regulatory impacts on certain product categories [2][7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.4 billion, 4.8 billion, and 5.0 billion yuan, with adjustments of +6%, -3%, and -13% [2][7] Financial Metrics - The company is expected to have a PE ratio of 14x for 2024, with a CAGR of 6% for adjusted net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][7] - The target price is set between 31 and 33 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 45% to 54% from the current stock price of 21.45 HKD [2][7]