报喜鸟：零售承压，乐飞叶表现突出

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price set above the current price of 3.67 CNY [4][3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.13 billion CNY in Q2 2024, a decrease of 4.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 90 million CNY, down 38% year-on-year [1] - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.48 billion CNY, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 15.6% to 340 million CNY [1] - The company is actively responding to external pressures by controlling terminal discounts, expanding channels, upgrading channel structures, and enhancing brand promotion [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.7 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 100 million CNY, with a payout ratio of about 30% [1] Revenue by Brand - In H1 2024, the revenue breakdown by brand shows: - Baoshiniao: 770 million CNY, down 3.7%, accounting for 31% of total revenue - Haji's: 860 million CNY, up 0.3%, accounting for 35% - Lefeiye: 150 million CNY, up 32%, accounting for 6% - Baoniao: 510 million CNY, down 2%, accounting for 20% - Kaimiqie & TB: 90 million CNY, down 6%, accounting for 4% [1] Store Count - As of H1 2024, the company operates a total of 1,772 stores, with a net increase of 11 stores from the end of 2023 [1] - The breakdown by brand includes: - Baoshiniao: 807 stores, 229 of which are direct-operated - Haji's: 467 stores, 335 direct-operated and 132 franchised - Lefeiye: 80 stores, 78 direct-operated [1] Revenue by Channel - Revenue by channel in H1 2024 is as follows: - Online: 380 million CNY, down 2%, accounting for 15% - Direct-operated: 1.01 billion CNY, down 3%, accounting for 41% - Franchised: 360 million CNY, up 7%, accounting for 14% - Group purchase: 540 million CNY, down 2%, accounting for 22% [1] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for H1 2024 was 66.99%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 13.87%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [1] - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.45, 0.53, and 0.60 CNY per share, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [3][4]