JD HEALTH(06618) 海通国际·2024-08-20 02:03Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Health International (6618 HK) with a target price of HKD 41.49, reflecting a significant upside from the current price of HKD 23.15 [3][7]. Core Views - JD Health has demonstrated healthy revenue growth driven by increases in platform, advertising, and other service revenues, achieving CNY 28.34 billion in the first half of 2024, a 4.6% increase year-on-year [12][13]. - The integration of online medical insurance is expected to enhance online traffic and penetration rates, with over 350 designated pharmacies in Beijing connected to the JD platform as of the first half of 2024 [15][16]. - The company has established a closed loop of testing, consultation, and medication purchasing services, which is anticipated to drive innovation in pharmaceutical retail [16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 57.4 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach CNY 4.34 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.9% [17][18]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was reported at 23.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, with net profit reaching CNY 2.03 billion, a 30.2% increase [14][18]. - The number of active users reached 180 million, a 7.2% increase, and the number of platform merchants grew to 80,000, a 122.2% increase [12][13]. Valuation and Forecast - The DCF valuation estimates the company's equity value at CNY 121.73 billion, corresponding to a share price of HKD 41.49, based on a WACC of 8.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% [17][18]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 is CNY 64.0 billion, with an expected growth rate of 11.5% [17].