LEAPMOTOR(09863) 国盛证券·2024-08-21 00:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (09863.HK) with a target price of HKD 30, corresponding to a market capitalization of HKD 406 billion and a P/S ratio of 1.3x for 2024 estimates [4][2]. Core Insights - Leap Motor's Q2 performance showed strong sales growth, with 53,286 vehicles sold, representing a 57% year-on-year increase. Revenue reached RMB 5.4 billion, up 23% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 2.8%, marking a turnaround from losses, with a reduction in net loss margin to 22% [1][2]. - The company is set to expand its international sales, having established "Leap International" with Stellantis, and plans to begin sales in Europe in September, with expectations of selling around 6,000 vehicles overseas in Q4 [2][1]. - The report forecasts that Leap Motor will achieve over 250,000 vehicle deliveries in 2024, with total revenues projected to reach RMB 27.9 billion [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Growth: Leap Motor's revenue is expected to grow significantly from RMB 12.4 billion in 2022 to RMB 79.0 billion by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 295% in 2022, 35% in 2023, and 67% in 2024 [3][11]. - Net Profit: The company is projected to reduce its net losses from RMB 5.1 billion in 2022 to a profit of RMB 874 million by 2026, with net profit margins improving from -41.3% in 2022 to 1.1% in 2026 [3][11]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin is expected to improve from -15.4% in 2022 to 11% by 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability as sales volume increases [8][11]. Sales and Production Outlook - Leap Motor's total vehicle sales are projected to increase from 111,168 units in 2022 to 740,918 units by 2026, with significant contributions from new models and international markets [11][12]. - The company aims to enhance its domestic sales network, expanding to 474 stores across 187 cities by mid-2023, with plans for further expansion to support sales growth [1][2].