CAPCHEM(300037) 国联证券·2024-08-21 01:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 31.32 CNY [6] Core Viewpoints - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to declining product prices and increased operating costs, but its fluorochemical and overseas expansion strategies are progressing steadily [5][9] - The company achieved revenue of 3.582 billion CNY in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.35%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.54% to 416 million CNY [8] - The lithium battery electrolyte business saw a slight revenue increase of 4.44% to 2.293 billion CNY, but gross margin dropped by 2.08 percentage points to 13.65% due to price declines [9] - The organic fluorine business is expected to see both volume and profit growth in H2 2024, supported by stable terminal demand and the gradual production of the Haidefu Phase I project [10] - The company's overseas expansion, including the 40,000-ton/year electrolyte project in Poland, is expected to enhance its global market share and profitability [11] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue: 3.582 billion CNY (+4.35% YoY), net profit: 416 million CNY (-19.54% YoY) [8] - Q2 2024 revenue: 2.067 billion CNY (+15.75% YoY, +36.41% QoQ), net profit: 251 million CNY (-7.54% YoY, +51.97% QoQ) [8] - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026: 8.196 billion CNY (+9.5%), 9.733 billion CNY (+18.8%), and 13.380 billion CNY (+37.5%) respectively [12] - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026: 1.096 billion CNY (+8.4%), 1.644 billion CNY (+49.9%), and 2.227 billion CNY (+35.5%) respectively [12] Business Segment Analysis - Lithium Battery Electrolyte: Revenue of 2.293 billion CNY in H1 2024 (+4.44% YoY), with gross margin declining to 13.65% due to price pressures [9] - Organic Fluorine: Revenue of 712 million CNY in H1 2024 (-4.72% YoY), with gross margin at 62.22%, expected to grow in H2 2024 [10] - Overseas Expansion: The Poland plant's 40,000-ton/year electrolyte project is operational, with plans to add another 50,000-ton/year capacity [11] Valuation and Forecast - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: 1.45 CNY, 2.18 CNY, and 2.95 CNY respectively [12] - P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 21x, 14x, and 10x respectively [12] - The report expects a three-year CAGR of 30.1% for net profit [12]