中国广核：量价确定性不变，成长预期加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 39.38 billion yuan for 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.17 billion yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [1]. - The company experienced seasonal fluctuations in electricity generation due to fuel replacement maintenance, with a total electricity generation of 106.01 billion kWh in 1H24, a slight increase of 0.09% year-on-year [2]. - The average market electricity price decreased by 2.1% in 1H24, but the company is expected to face limited price risks due to its controllable nuclear power generation capabilities and the high costs of marginal coal-fired power plants in its operational regions [2]. - The company received approval for six new nuclear units, confirming its growth potential in nuclear power, with a total installed capacity of 7.348 million kW [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 1H24, the company achieved a revenue of 39.38 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.17 billion yuan, both showing slight year-on-year growth [1]. Operational Analysis - The company’s electricity generation was impacted by seasonal maintenance, with a total of 1060.1 billion kWh generated in 1H24, reflecting a minor increase [2]. - The average market electricity price saw a decrease of 2.1%, but the company’s pricing power remains strong due to its nuclear power capabilities [2]. - The approval of six new nuclear units indicates ongoing growth in the nuclear sector, with a total capacity of 7.348 million kW [2]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.93 billion yuan, 12.97 billion yuan, and 13.33 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.24 yuan, 0.26 yuan, and 0.26 yuan [3]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 21x, 19x, and 18x, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3].