AHHL(600761) 海通证券·2024-08-23 08:48Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [2] Core Views - The company is a leading forklift manufacturer with over 60 years of industry experience, benefiting from state-owned enterprise reforms that have enhanced operational vitality [6] - The global forklift market is expected to grow steadily, with opportunities in electrification, overseas expansion, and aftermarket services [6] - The company has a comprehensive industrial chain layout, strong R&D capabilities, and innovative sales and overseas expansion models, positioning it for future growth [7] Company Overview - The company has a complete industrial chain covering forklift manufacturing, components, aftermarket services, and intelligent logistics solutions [6] - It has achieved significant revenue and profit growth, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 17.47 billion, up 10.76% YoY, and net profit of RMB 1.28 billion, up 40.89% YoY [6] - The company is focusing on international expansion, with overseas sales accounting for 34.54% of total sales in 2023 [47] Industry Analysis - The global forklift market is projected to grow from RMB 208.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 281.4 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.39% [40] - Electrification is a key trend, with lithium battery forklifts gaining popularity due to environmental and cost advantages [6] - The Chinese forklift market has grown rapidly, with a CAGR of 16.47% from 2009 to 2023, driven by economic growth, e-commerce, and logistics development [41] Competitive Landscape - The domestic market is dominated by two major players, with the company and its main competitor holding a combined market share of over 25% [50] - Chinese forklift manufacturers are accelerating their overseas expansion, with the company's global market share increasing from 7% in 2013 to 13.73% in 2023 [54] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 19.93 billion in 2024, up 14.1% YoY, and net profit of RMB 1.55 billion, up 20.9% YoY [7] - The report values the company at 10-12x 2024 PE, with a target price range of RMB 17.35-20.82 per share [7]