AIA(01299) 开源证券·2024-08-23 08:50Investment Rating - Maintained "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Strong demand for dividend savings products in Hong Kong, with both new premium and value rate increasing in mainland business [2] - AIA Insurance's 2024H1 NBV increased by 21% YoY to USD 2.46 billion, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 25% [27] - Annualized new premium for 2024H1 was USD 4.55 billion, up 14% YoY, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 17% [27] - Post-tax operating profit for 2024H1 was USD 3.39 billion, up 3% YoY, with a fixed exchange rate increase of 7% [27] - AIA announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.45 per share, totaling HKD 4.9 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 19% [27] Regional Performance - Mainland China: 2024H1 NBV reached USD 780 million, up 36% YoY, with new annualized premium up 21% and margin increasing by 6.4 percentage points to 56.6% [18] - Hong Kong: Dividend savings flagship products contributed USD 860 million in NBV, up 26% YoY, with local and mainland visitor contributions increasing by 28% and 24% respectively [18] - Singapore: 2024H1 NBV was USD 220 million, up 27% YoY, with "Best Agents" NBV increasing by 31% [18] Financial Metrics - Embedded value (EV) increased by 8% YoY to USD 74.2 billion in 2024H1, driven by NBV growth and operational experience deviations [18] - Agent productivity and new agent numbers increased by 12% and 22% respectively in 2024H1, with "Best Agents" channel NBV up 19% [18] - 2024-2026 NBV growth expectations maintained at +12.4%, +10.8%, and +10.4%, with EV growth expected at +8.8%, +8.5%, and +8.3% [27] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecasted at HKD 31.7 billion, HKD 33.9 billion, and HKD 36.3 billion, with YoY growth of +17.5%, +16.5%, and +11.9% respectively [27] Valuation - Current stock price corresponds to 2024-2026 PEV of 1.0x, 0.9x, and 0.9x, and PE of 19.0x, 17.7x, and 16.6x [27]