KINGLAND(002443) 国泰君安·2024-08-24 08:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinzhou Pipe (002443) with a target price of 6.05 yuan, down from the previous target of 7.62 yuan [1][4] Core Views - Jinzhou Pipe is one of the leading suppliers of welded steel pipes in China, with a production and sales scale of around 1 million tons [4] - The company's under-construction "600,000-ton high-quality welded pipe and factory prefabricated deep-processed pipe fittings" project, with a total planned investment of 680 million yuan, is expected to further enhance the company's overall product competitiveness and profitability upon completion [2][4] - The company's cost pressure is expected to ease as the price of hot-rolled coil, its main raw material, has declined by 9.00% QoQ in Q3 2024, a larger drop than the price declines of welded pipes and galvanized pipes [4] - The company has strong product competitiveness and R&D capabilities, with R&D personnel accounting for about 15% of its workforce, enabling it to maintain counter-cyclical growth in production and sales [4] Financial Forecasts - The report lowers the 2024-2025 net profit forecasts to 287 million yuan and 332 million yuan, respectively, and adds a 2026 net profit forecast of 382 million yuan [4] - The 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 0.55 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 0.73 yuan, respectively [4] - The 2024-2026 revenue growth rates are forecasted at 6.8%, 15.1%, and 15.2%, respectively [8] - The 2024-2026 net profit growth rates are forecasted at 1.2%, 15.7%, and 14.8%, respectively [8] Valuation - The report values Jinzhou Pipe at 11x 2024 PE, higher than the average 10.54x PE of comparable companies, considering its higher product added value [11][12] Industry and Market Data - Jinzhou Pipe's 52-week stock price range is 4.92-7.66 yuan, with a current price of 4.96 yuan and a market capitalization of 2,582 million yuan [4] - The company's 1M, 3M, and 12M absolute stock price changes are -5%, -16%, and -24%, respectively [7]