环球市场脉搏（2024年8月）：市场焦点—浪击而不沉

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant adjustments in early August due to a series of events, including widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, and a shift in trading sentiment following weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data [1] - The popular trades of shorting the yen and going long on U.S. large-cap growth stocks faced a paradigm shift, leading to a reassessment of market positions [1] - Concerns over economic hard landing and recession fears triggered a panic sell-off, with the VIX index reaching its highest level of the year [1] U.S. Market Insights - Despite recent market turmoil, there is no clear indication that the U.S. is entering a recession; economic data remains inconsistent, suggesting potential for continued market volatility [1] - The S&P 500 index is expected to fluctuate around 5500 points until clearer economic signals emerge [1] Japanese Market Insights - The Japanese stock market's strength is driven by foreign investment rather than domestic investors, leading to high volatility [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is projected to fluctuate between 155 and 160 until Q3 2024, with a subsequent range of 140 to 155 anticipated [1] Asset Performance - Precious metals have performed strongly, with gold up 21.2% and silver up 23.3% year-to-date, driven by safe-haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [2] - Most 10-year government bond yields have decreased across major economies [2] - Recent underperformance in U.S. and Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei index down 4.0% and the S&P 500 index up 0.8% over the past 30 days [2] - Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks in the last 30 days, with sectors like real estate, healthcare, consumer goods, and utilities showing positive returns [2] Sentiment Indicators - "Dumb money" confidence is very optimistic, while "smart money" confidence is also optimistic, indicating a projected excess return of -0.6% over the next two months [3] - The put-call ratio in the U.S. stock market is currently at 0.47, suggesting a generally bullish sentiment despite recent adjustments [3] - The VIX index has surged during recent market turbulence, reflecting increased market fear [3]