Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its ability to balance volume and price in a competitive market environment [6] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of RMB 206.9 billion, up 10.5% YoY, with adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders increasing 12.1% YoY to RMB 50.1 billion [3] - In Q2 2024, revenue grew 10.1% YoY to RMB 107.3 billion, with adjusted net profit up 9.2% YoY to RMB 27.8 billion [3] - The company's parcel volume grew 11.8% YoY in H1 2024, with Q2 growth at 10.1%, while average revenue per parcel declined slightly by 1.7% to RMB 1.22 [4] - Gross profit increased 13.6% YoY to RMB 66.2 billion in H1 2024, with gross margin improving by 0.9 percentage points to 32.0% [4] - Operating expenses rose 15.4% YoY to RMB 14.9 billion in H1 2024, while financial expenses improved [5] - The company expects full-year parcel volume growth of 15-18% and forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 97.7 billion, RMB 110.6 billion, and RMB 123.5 billion for 2024-2026, representing YoY growth of 11.7%, 13.2%, and 11.6% respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.2%, reaching RMB 514.3 billion by 2026 [7] - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 102.8 billion in 2024 to RMB 182.9 billion in 2026 [7] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 10.83 in 2023 to RMB 15.20 in 2026 [7] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 12.2X in 2024 to 9.7X in 2026, while P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 1.81X to 1.49X over the same period [7] - ROE is anticipated to improve from 14.87% in 2024 to 15.47% in 2026 [8] Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a 6.7% YoY reduction in per-parcel transportation costs in H1 2024, driven by scale effects [4] - Sorting center costs per parcel increased 4.6% YoY in Q2 2024 due to automation equipment upgrades [4] - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 33.07% as of the latest reporting period [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company has maintained stable pricing despite industry competition, focusing on value over volume [4] - As a leading e-commerce logistics provider, the company is well-positioned to benefit from industry growth and cost efficiency improvements [6] - The company's strategy of avoiding loss-making parcels has contributed to its stable financial performance [4]
中通快递-W：单票利润坚挺，龙头平稳前行