Kewell(688551) 中邮证券·2024-08-28 09:30Investment Rating - The stock is rated as "Buy" and the rating is maintained [2] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but the product structure improvement in test power supply is promising [3] - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, but net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [3] - The main reasons for the lower-than-expected performance are slow progress in the power semiconductor business and a decline in the gross margin of test power supply [3] - The company plans to repurchase 20-30 million yuan of shares [3] - The test power supply business achieved revenue of 200 million yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, but the gross margin declined due to price reductions, intensified competition, and a higher proportion of high-power test power supply in the sales structure [3] - The hydrogen energy industry is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of new energy, with hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales in China projected to grow from 3,400 units in 2022 to 412,400 units in 2030, with a CAGR of 82.2% [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 710 million yuan, 970 million yuan, and 1.26 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 140 million yuan, 200 million yuan, and 280 million yuan, respectively [3] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are expected to be 14x, 10x, and 8x, respectively [3] - In H1 2024, the company's gross margin and net margin were 50.4% and 16.2%, respectively, down by 4.9 ppts and 6.3 ppts year-on-year [3] - The sales expense ratio increased to 14.7%, while the management expense ratio and R&D expense ratio decreased to 9.7% and 15.9%, respectively [3] Industry Outlook - The hydrogen energy industry is expected to see significant growth, with the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China projected to exceed 1,000 by 2025, and green hydrogen production capacity expected to reach nearly 1 million tons [3] - The test power supply business is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of new energy and the development of hydrogen energy [3] Financial Metrics - The company's total market capitalization is 2.1 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 17.04 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.4% [1] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.72 yuan, 2.43 yuan, and 3.28 yuan, respectively [5] - The company's ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 9.9%, 12.3%, and 14.2%, respectively [7]