Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for SF Intra-City (9699 HK) with a target price of HKD 13.50, implying a potential upside of +24.3% [1] Core Views - Revenue growth momentum is expected to continue, driven by an expanding merchant and consumer base, deeper penetration into county-level markets, and broader service scenarios [1] - Full-year revenue is projected to grow 20% YoY to RMB 14.9 billion, with adjusted net profit revised upward by 9.2% to RMB 156 million, reflecting a net margin of 1.0% [1] - The company is set to be included in the Hang Seng Index on September 9 and is expected to be added to the Stock Connect program in September [1] 2024 H1 Performance - Revenue reached RMB 6.9 billion, up 20% YoY, slightly below the expected 22% [1] - Net profit doubled YoY to RMB 67 million, with a net margin of 1%, driven by strong order volume growth (+30% YoY), improved business structure, and operational efficiency gains [1] - Gross profit increased 23% YoY, with gross margin slightly improving to 6.9% [1] Business Highlights Intra-City Business - Revenue grew 19% YoY, with merchant and consumer segments increasing by 19% and 20%, respectively [1] - Expansion into retail scenarios, including partnerships with KA clients (adding 6,000+ stores), and growth in active merchants (+45% YoY) and consumers (+18% YoY) [1] - County-level revenue surged 50%+ YoY, with non-meal revenue (e.g., beverages, supermarkets, baked goods, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics) growing 32%, now accounting for 58% of total revenue (vs. 52% last year) [1] Last-Mile Delivery - Revenue increased 20% YoY, with further penetration into SF Express's order volume [1] - E-commerce parcels continue to drive demand, with same-day and half-day delivery scenarios seeing revenue double YoY [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is revised down by -1.6% to RMB 14.9 billion, while 2025E and 2026E forecasts remain unchanged at RMB 17.97 billion and RMB 21.11 billion, respectively [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is adjusted to 6.8% (from 7.1%), with 2025E and 2026E margins stable at 7.3% and 8.1%, respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is raised by 9.2% to RMB 156 million, with net margins of 1.0%, 2.0%, and 3.3% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [3] Industry Coverage - The report covers multiple companies in the internet and education sectors, with Buy ratings for companies like Baidu (BIDU US), Bilibili (BILI US), and Tencent Music (TME US) [6] - SF Intra-City is categorized under the logistics sector, with a Buy rating and a target price of HKD 13.50 [6] Financial Ratios and Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 6.4% in 2023 to 8.1% in 2026E [7] - ROE is projected to increase from 1.7% in 2023 to 17.0% in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability [7] - The company's liquidity remains strong, with a current ratio of 2.7 in 2024E, improving to 2.9 by 2026E [7]
顺丰同城：收入保持增长动能，控费好于预期，上调全年利润