SIA(600009) 国信证券·2024-08-29 10:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, downgraded from Outperform [2][14]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2024, with a revenue of 6.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, and a net profit of 815 million yuan, up 515.0% [5][8]. - The recovery of passenger traffic continues, with Q2 international passenger volume reaching 80% of 2019 levels [5][8]. - Despite the recovery, non-aeronautical revenue faces pressure due to renegotiated duty-free agreements leading to decreased rental income [8][11]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 12.22 billion yuan, 13.71 billion yuan, and 15.22 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10.6%, 12.2%, and 11.0% [1][10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.90 billion yuan, 2.85 billion yuan, and 3.22 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 103.6%, 50.1%, and 12.9% [1][10]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are projected to be 42.5, 28.3, and 25.1, respectively [1][10]. Operational Data - In the first half of 2024, the company handled 6.036 million passengers, a 43% increase year-on-year, recovering to 99% of 2019 levels [5][8]. - The number of takeoffs and landings in Q2 2024 was 195,000, a 17% increase year-on-year [5][8]. - Non-aeronautical revenue increased by 21.6% to 1.48 billion yuan, driven by growth in logistics services and other aviation-related income [8][11]. Investment Recommendations - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, supporting its investment value [14]. - Due to slower recovery in duty-free business, net profit forecasts for 2024-2025 have been adjusted downwards to 1.90 billion yuan and 2.85 billion yuan [14].