KELUN PHARMA(002422) 交银国际证券·2024-08-31 03:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 42.50, indicating a potential upside of 35.4% from the current price of RMB 31.40 [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance in the raw material drug business for 1H24, while the large-volume infusion segment faced pressure but is stabilizing. The target price has been raised to RMB 42.50 due to these developments [1][3]. - The company is focusing on innovation and commercialization, with two indications of SKB264 in the domestic approval stage and a commercial team being established [2]. - The report anticipates a revenue decline of less than 5% for the infusion segment for the full year, while the raw material and intermediate business is expected to maintain high growth rates [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 23,308 million, with a slight increase of 0.5% from the previous forecast. The gross profit is expected to be RMB 12,185 million, reflecting a 0.9% increase [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is estimated at RMB 2,874 million, a 0.7% increase from the prior forecast [3][8]. - The gross margin is projected to be 52.3% for 2024E, slightly improving from 52.1% in the previous forecast [3][8]. Business Segment Performance - The large-volume infusion segment experienced a revenue decline of 7% in 2Q24, while the raw material drug segment saw a significant revenue increase of 38% due to improved demand and production efficiency [1][2]. - Non-infusion generic drugs showed resilience with a revenue growth of 6%, particularly in categories like plastic water needles and men's health products [1][2]. - The company is enhancing its product development and marketing efforts, with expectations of significant sales growth in new product categories [1][2].