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申洲国际:24H1业绩点评:订单结构性修复,毛利率改善超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant recovery in revenue and net profit for 2024H1, driven by structural improvements in order demand and a substantial increase in gross margin [3] - The company is a leading vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer, with a notable increase in production efficiency and capacity utilization [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at 27,521 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.22% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is forecasted at 5,831 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.95% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is estimated at 3.88 [2] Performance Highlights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.976 billion with a year-on-year increase of 12.2% and a net profit of 2.931 billion, up 37.8% [3] - The gross margin improved significantly to 29%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, due to enhanced production efficiency and capacity utilization [3] - The company declared an interim dividend of 1.25 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 58.3% [3] Product and Market Analysis - The company experienced a volume increase of 20% in 2024H1, with a decline in average selling price (ASP) due to a shift in product mix towards lower-priced categories like underwear and casual wear [3] - Revenue growth by product category showed sportswear, casual wear, and underwear increasing by 7.6%, 20%, and 47.4% respectively [3] - Key clients include Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, and Puma, with revenues of 3.4 billion, 3.24 billion, 2.33 billion, and 1.34 billion respectively [3] Capacity Expansion and Strategic Moves - The company is steadily ramping up production capacity in new factories in Cambodia and Vietnam, with a total workforce of 102,000 as of 2024H1 [3] - The acquisition of a fabric factory in Vietnam is expected to enhance fabric supply for overseas garment factories [3] Adjusted Profit Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 58.3 billion, 64.8 billion, and 71.9 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 12 [3]