Air China(601111) 信达证券·2024-08-31 09:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Aviation (601111) is upgraded to "Accumulate" from "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2024, with total operating income reaching 79.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.4% and a 21.8% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [1][2] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.78 billion yuan, which represents a reduction in losses by 668 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The report anticipates a strong recovery in profitability for the company in the coming years, with projected net profits of 2.45 billion yuan, 5.25 billion yuan, and 6.53 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 123.4%, 2043.3%, and 24.5% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 39.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.11 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [2] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 2.58%, with a significant recovery potential, while the financial expense ratio saw a notable decrease [2] - The passenger load factor improved significantly, reaching 79.0% in Q2 2024, which is an increase of 8.55 percentage points year-on-year [2] Operational Metrics - The fleet size reached 915 aircraft with an average age of 9.64 years, and the daily utilization rate of aircraft was 8.79 hours, showing a recovery trend [3] - The company plans to increase its fleet by a net addition of 34, 34, and 64 aircraft in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The unit revenue per RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometer) decreased in Q2 2024, primarily due to a rapid decline in demand during the off-peak season [2] - The unit cost per ASK (Available Seat Kilometer) slightly increased, influenced by high oil prices, with the average price of aviation fuel rising by 8.0% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's future profitability, supported by the recovery of domestic and international routes and an improving supply-demand relationship [5]