Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of HKD 19.85, corresponding to a 0.95x PB for 2024 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's profit declined by 37% in the first half of 2024, but there are signs of improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The company is expected to strengthen its professional capabilities and establish itself as a leading international investment bank [5]. - The report highlights that the company's international business and specialized capabilities are prominent, which may help it consolidate its advantages in various business segments [5]. - The report anticipates that the supply-side reform in the industry may accelerate, which could benefit the company [5]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were HKD 89.1 billion and HKD 22.3 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 28.3% and 37.3% [5]. - The weighted average ROE decreased by 1.67 percentage points to 1.21%, aligning with expectations [5]. - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.10, 1.27, and 1.40, respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 1.33, 1.50, and 1.63 [5][7]. - The company's revenue from wealth management, brokerage, investment banking, asset management, net interest, and other business segments saw declines of 21%, 20%, 36%, 4%, 11%, and 39%, respectively [5]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 8.37, with a market capitalization of HKD 40.404 billion and a total share count of 4,827 million [6]. - The stock has traded within a range of HKD 7.87 to HKD 16.16 over the past 52 weeks [6]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company's wealth management capabilities are improving, with a stable product retention scale of over HKD 340 billion, although the market environment has impacted certain revenue streams [5]. - The investment banking segment has faced challenges, with a revenue drop of 36% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the company to achieve better-than-expected growth through innovation in fixed-income products and enhanced merger and acquisition services [5].
中金公司2024年半年报点评：业绩短期蛰伏，边际趋于改善