Eastern Air Logistics (601156) 华泰证券·2024-09-01 06:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Eastern Air Logistics (601156 CH) with a target price of RMB 20.90 [2][5] Core Views - Eastern Air Logistics' 2Q24 performance showed significant year-on-year improvement, with a 34.9% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching RMB 688 million [2] - The company announced a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 48%, which, if maintained for the full year, could result in a dividend yield of 6.2% [2][5] - The report predicts a continued upward trend in the air cargo market and highlights the company's efforts to enhance its integrated logistics capabilities, potentially creating a second growth curve [2] Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue reached RMB 11.286 billion, a 20.4% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew slightly by 0.4% to RMB 1.277 billion [2] - 2Q24 air express revenue increased by 10.3% year-on-year to RMB 2.329 billion, but the gross margin declined by 4.5 percentage points to 22.2% due to lower-margin belly cargo business and an 8% increase in oil prices [3] - Ground integrated services remained stable, with 2Q24 revenue increasing by 2.8% year-on-year to RMB 631 million, while the gross margin slightly decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 40.6% [4] - Integrated logistics solutions saw rapid growth, with 2Q24 revenue increasing by 49.4% year-on-year to RMB 3.100 billion, and the gross margin rising by 1.7 percentage points to 16.4% [4] Forecasts and Valuation - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 at RMB 3.220 billion, RMB 3.834 billion, and RMB 4.125 billion, respectively, based on a 10.3x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2024 [5][6] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 2.03, RMB 2.41, and RMB 2.60, respectively [6] Industry and Market Context - The TAC Pudong Airport outbound air freight price index increased by 27% year-on-year in 2Q24, driven by cross-border e-commerce demand, but this did not translate into higher gross margins for the air express segment [3] - The company's financial expenses decreased by RMB 192 million in 2Q24 due to stable RMB exchange rates, contributing to the overall improvement in net profit [4]