中远海能：外贸油运静待需求回升提振运价

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 10.50 and RMB 17.60 [7][8]. Core Views - The report indicates that global oil demand growth has slowed, impacting freight rates in the first half of 2024. The company reported revenue of RMB 11.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.61 billion, down 7.1% year-on-year. The decline in profitability is attributed to reduced transportation volumes due to OPEC's production cuts and a drop in international crude oil freight rates. However, the long-term outlook for the oil transportation market is optimistic, with tightening supply expected to drive freight rates higher as demand recovers [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's foreign trade oil transportation gross profit was RMB 2.58 billion, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.2%, down 3.8 percentage points. The gross profit from foreign crude oil transportation was RMB 1.28 billion, down 24.7% year-on-year, while the gross profit from foreign refined oil transportation was RMB 0.65 billion, up 26.3% year-on-year [3][4]. Domestic Oil Transportation - The domestic oil transportation segment achieved a gross profit of RMB 0.73 billion in the first half of 2024, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.8%, up 1.4 percentage points. The stable demand in the domestic market has allowed the company to maintain a leading market share [4]. LNG Business - The LNG business contributed a net profit of RMB 0.40 billion in the first half of 2024, remaining flat year-on-year. The company has been expanding its LNG fleet, operating 45 LNG vessels as of the first half of 2024, with an additional 40 vessels under construction [4]. Market Outlook - According to Clarksons data, the global crude oil tanker supply growth is projected at 0.8%/1.5%/3.0% for 2024/2025/2026, while demand growth is expected to be 3.2%/2.5%/2.8%. The refined oil tanker supply growth is forecasted at 2.4%/5.8%/5.9%, with demand growth at 7.0%/-1.3%/3.0%. The report suggests that the crude oil tanker market's supply-demand structure is more favorable compared to the refined oil tanker market, indicating potential for freight rate increases as demand recovers [5][10].