三只松鼠：战略成效显著，百亿目标坚定

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate - B" [1][3]. Core Views - The company has shown significant strategic effectiveness and is determined to achieve a revenue target of 10 billion yuan. The focus is on high-end cost performance and strengthening major products across all channels [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.075 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 75.39%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 290 million yuan, up 88.57% year-on-year [1][4]. - The revenue for Q2 2024 was 1.429 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 19 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1][4]. Revenue Analysis - The company's revenue growth is driven by effective strategic implementation, with significant increases across all channels. Online revenue for H1 2024 reached 4.09 billion yuan, accounting for 81% of total revenue, with notable growth from platforms like Douyin, Tmall, and JD [1][3]. - The offline distribution business also showed strong performance, with revenue exceeding 100% growth year-on-year, and the number of regional distributors increasing to 1,192 by the end of June [1][3]. Product and Brand Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.76 billion yuan from nuts, a year-on-year increase of 67.90%, and 610 million yuan from baked goods, up 38.85% [1][4]. - The sub-brand "Little Deer Blue" has been positioned as a high-end healthy snack for children, achieving revenue growth of 66% in H1 2024 and contributing to sustainable profitability [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 10.413 billion yuan, 13.722 billion yuan, and 17.052 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.4%, 31.8%, and 24.3% [3][4]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised, with expected figures of 391 million yuan, 594 million yuan, and 800 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 77.8%, 52.0%, and 34.7% [3][4].