QINCHUAN(000837) 西南证券·2024-09-02 04:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.021 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 46.45% to 43 million yuan [2] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a reduction in other income, particularly government subsidies, which fell by approximately 48 million yuan [2] - The company achieved a record high in exports, with a year-on-year growth of 42.55% in H1 2024, including a 62.35% increase in main machine exports [2] - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic gear machine tools, with expectations for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% in revenue over the next three years [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.021 billion yuan, with a net profit of 43 million yuan, down 46.45% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 17.03%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue from machine tools reached 1.01 billion yuan, growing by 8.1% year-on-year, while parts revenue was 740 million yuan, up 2% [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 110 million, 170 million, and 250 million yuan respectively, with a projected revenue CAGR of 14% [2][5] - The expected revenue for 2024 is 4.262 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.33% [3][5] Business Segments - The machine tool segment is expected to see order growth rates of 17.5%, 17.1%, and 18.1% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins improving to 18.5% by 2026 [5] - The parts segment is projected to grow at 11% to 12.7% over the same period, with gross margins increasing to 15% [5] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leader in the domestic gear machine tool market, with a market share exceeding 60% in the grinding machine segment [5]