QINCHUAN(000837) 西南证券·2024-09-02 05:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837) with a current price of 7.03 yuan [1] Core Views - Qinchuan Machine Tool achieved revenue of 2.021 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.33%, but net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 46.45% to 43 million yuan [2] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a reduction in government subsidies (down by 48 million yuan) and a slight decrease in gross margin (17.03% in H1 2024, down 1.31 percentage points) [2] - The company's export business reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of 42.55%, and its gear grinding machines entered the Turkish and Brazilian markets for the first time [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 110 million, 170 million, and 250 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a compound annual revenue growth rate of 14% [2] Business Performance - Machine tool revenue grew by 8.1% year-on-year to 1.01 billion yuan in H1 2024, while parts revenue increased by 2% to 740 million yuan [2] - The gross margin for machine tools was 16.38%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the gross margin for parts was 11.12%, down 3.21 percentage points [2] - The company's machine tool business is expected to grow at a rate of 17.5%, 17.1%, and 18.1% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with gross margins improving to 17.5%, 18.0%, and 18.5% [5] - The parts business is projected to grow at 11.0%, 11.9%, and 12.7% in the same period, with gross margins increasing to 13.5%, 14.0%, and 15.0% [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.761 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.551 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.33% to 14.60% [3][5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 52.26 million yuan in 2024 to 246.99 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 118.16%, 51.72%, and 42.80% respectively [3] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 1.24% in 2023 to 5.18% in 2026, while the PE ratio is projected to decrease from 136 in 2024 to 29 in 2026 [3][9] Market Position - Qinchuan Machine Tool is a leading domestic gear machine tool manufacturer, with a market share of over 60% in gear grinding machines [5] - The company is accelerating the expansion of high-end machine tools, such as five-axis machines, to promote domestic substitution [5]