森麒麟：2024半年报点评：Q2净利率创新高，摩洛哥工厂预计Q4投产

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 10.77 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 77.71%, with a net profit margin of 28.76% in Q2, reaching a historical high [2] - The company's semi-steel tire and export demand remain strong, with a production volume of 16.09 million tires in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.90% [2] - The Morocco factory is expected to start production in Q4 2024, which will further enhance the company's growth potential [2][8] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue reached 41.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.21%, with a gross profit margin of 35.27% in Q2, the highest since 2021 [2][3] - The company's net profit in Q2 was 5.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.11%, with a net profit margin of 28.76%, the highest in history [2] - The company's financial expenses decreased by 46.88% year-on-year in H1 2024, mainly due to increased interest income [3] Production and Sales - In H1 2024, the company produced 16.09 million tires, a year-on-year increase of 18.90%, with semi-steel tire production reaching 15.60 million, up 17.90% year-on-year [2] - The company sold 15.10 million tires in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.35%, with semi-steel tire sales reaching 14.61 million, up 9.06% year-on-year [2] - The operating rate of semi-steel tires remained high at 79% as of August 29, 2024 [2] Overseas Expansion - The company's Thailand plant achieved a revenue of 2.61 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.36%, with a net profit of 708 million yuan, up 109.73% year-on-year [8] - The Morocco factory, with an annual production capacity of 12 million high-performance passenger and light truck radial tires, is expected to start production in Q4 2024 [8] - The company is also steadily advancing the Spain project, which will further boost its performance [8] Profitability and Valuation - The company's gross profit margin in Q2 2024 was 35.27%, a year-on-year increase of 12.82 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 28.76%, a year-on-year increase of 9.81 percentage points [3] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 10.13 in 2024, with a PB ratio of 1.78 [9] - The company's ROE is expected to be 17.55% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 24.76% [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% in net profit from 2024 to 2026 [8] - The company's overseas base construction is progressing steadily, and future performance is expected to grow significantly [8] - The company's profit level is leading the industry, and the significant reduction in the anti-dumping tax rate for PCR in Thailand will further enhance profitability [8]