CRSC(688009) 中国银河·2024-09-02 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.332 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.599 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year [1] - The railway and overseas businesses showed growth, with railway revenue at 9.035 billion yuan, up 1.88% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 606 million yuan, an increase of 3.24% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on its core business and accelerating the launch of municipal construction projects, despite a significant decline in engineering contracting revenue [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 29.36%, up 4.40 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin engineering contracting business [1] - The railway industry is experiencing an upward trend, with fixed asset investment in railways reaching 410.2 billion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [1] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with new overseas orders amounting to 3.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.45% [1] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.530 billion yuan, 3.795 billion yuan, and 4.333 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.33, 0.36, and 0.41 yuan [2] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 36.994 billion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year, followed by a growth of 5.45% in 2025 and 9.31% in 2026 [2][4] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 25.99% in 2024, gradually increasing to 26.58% by 2026 [2][4] Financial Indicators - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve from 9.40% in 2023 to 10.16% in 2026 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 7.43% in 2023 to 8.17% in 2026 [4] - The debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to remain stable, around 58% to 59% over the next few years [4]