GAC GROUP(601238) 民生证券·2024-09-02 09:31Investment Rating - Maintains a "Recommend" rating [1] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 revenue was RMB 46.26 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25.3%, with Q2 revenue at RMB 24.69 billion, down 30.2% year-on-year but up 14.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was negative RMB 340 million in 2024H1, with Q2 at negative RMB 1.03 billion, turning negative both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company's total sales in 2024H1 were 863,000 units, down 25.8% year-on-year, with Q2 deliveries at 453,000 units, down 27.3% year-on-year but up 10.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company is accelerating its intelligent technology development, aiming to achieve comprehensive leadership in intelligent driving by 2025 [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 1,229.4 billion, RMB 1,413.3 billion, and RMB 1,554.7 billion in 2024-2026, with net profits attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.22 billion, RMB 4.05 billion, and RMB 4.67 billion, respectively [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to be RMB 122,939 million in 2024, RMB 141,334 million in 2025, and RMB 155,467 million in 2026, with growth rates of -5.2%, 15.0%, and 10.0%, respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 3,223 million in 2024, RMB 4,052 million in 2025, and RMB 4,667 million in 2026, with growth rates of -27.2%, 25.7%, and 15.2%, respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 0.31 in 2024, RMB 0.39 in 2025, and RMB 0.45 in 2026 [4] - The PE ratio is expected to be 24x in 2024, 19x in 2025, and 16x in 2026 [4] Business Performance - The company's joint venture brands are under pressure, with GAC Honda's Q2 wholesale volume at 91,000 units, down 35.2% year-on-year, and GAC Toyota's Q2 wholesale volume at 180,000 units, down 22.7% year-on-year [2] - The self-owned brand GAC Trumpchi performed steadily, with Q2 sales of 103,000 units, down 1.0% year-on-year but up 21.0% quarter-on-quarter [2] - GAC Aion's Q2 sales were 77,000 units, up 40.8% year-on-year and 58.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] Intelligent Technology Development - The company has mastered L2 to L4 intelligent driving technology, with L2++ city intelligent driving functions already deployed in models like Hyper GT, Hyper HT, and the second-generation AION V [2] - The company plans to achieve nationwide deployment of urban NDA by the end of the year and aims to create a model for intercity three-dimensional travel in 2-3 cities within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area by 2027 [2]