GREAT RIVER SMARTER(002930) 国海证券·2024-09-02 17:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's capacity expansion continues, and its performance is expected to recover as demand rebounds [2] - The company's assets maintain strong scarcity, and the recovery in demand is expected to drive both capacity ramp-up and turnover improvement, leading to a gradual recovery in growth and profitability [4] - The company's business model is clear, and the industry's consolidation trend is certain, with future growth expected to be driven by its core business of terminal storage tanks, chemical warehouses, and a strategy of mergers and acquisitions supplemented by self-construction [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 736 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.83%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 133 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.05% [2] - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 356 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.40%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 73 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.30% [2] - The company's terminal storage tank business revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 638 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.98%, while chemical warehouse revenue was RMB 39 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.75% [3] - Other business revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 59 million, a year-on-year increase of 26.18% [3] - The gross margin of the terminal storage tank business in H1 2024 was 51.86%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.19 percentage points [3] Market Data - The current stock price is RMB 10.84, with a 52-week price range of RMB 10.04-22.60 [3] - The total market capitalization is RMB 4,959.19 million, and the circulating market capitalization is RMB 4,693.60 million [3] - The circulating shares are 432.99 million [3] Capacity Expansion - The company's operating tank capacity increased to 5.1869 million m³ in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.26% [3] - The company has under-construction chemical warehouse capacity of 94,100 square meters, distributed in Chengdu, Nantong, Suzhou, and Changzhou, which will increase the existing warehouse area by 144.99% upon completion [3] - In May 2024, the company acquired a 60% stake in Rizhao Hongchuan Storage Co Ltd, located in the Bohai Rim Economic Circle, providing strategic support for expanding into the Bohai Rim market [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1.587 billion, RMB 1.895 billion, and RMB 2.216 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 19%, and 17%, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 272 million, RMB 352 million, and RMB 453 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -8%, 29%, and 29%, respectively [6] - The P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 18.25x, 14.10x, and 10.96x, respectively [6] Financial Ratios - ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 10%, 12%, and 13%, respectively [7] - Gross margin for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 52%, 53%, and 54%, respectively [7] - The P/B ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 1.79x, 1.62x, and 1.45x, respectively [7] - The P/S ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 3.12x, 2.62x, and 2.24x, respectively [7]