Three Squirrels(300783)2024-09-02 23:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.07 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 290 million yuan, up 88.6% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 230 million yuan, a significant increase of 211.8% [1]. - The company's product model has matured, leading to rapid growth across all categories and channels. Online sales through platforms like Douyin, Tmall, and JD.com saw increases of 180.7%, 28.3%, and 20.3% respectively, contributing to 70% of the performance growth. Offline distribution revenue more than doubled, with the number of distributors increasing by 12.2% to 1,192 [1]. - Profitability is improving, with a net profit margin of 5.7% in the first half of 2024, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 21.9%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, attributed to direct sourcing of nuts and cost savings from the supply chain [1]. Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 380 million yuan for 2024, 530 million yuan for 2025, and 700 million yuan for 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 73.0%, 38.3%, and 32.4% respectively. The expected EPS for these years is 0.95 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.74 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 13, and 10 times [2][3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 10.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 43.5%, followed by 13.32 billion yuan in 2025 and 17.31 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 30.43% and 30.00% respectively [3]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on offline distribution and enhancing its competitive edge through high-end cost performance. The short video marketing strategy has stabilized online sales growth, while new product launches are expected to contribute to daily sales in Q3 [1]. - The D+N and B+N product models are being successfully implemented, with ongoing development of customized products and continued investment in production bases to maintain cost leadership and efficiency across the supply chain [1].