KELUN PHARMA(002422) 国盛证券·2024-09-03 02:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has demonstrated sustained high growth in performance, particularly in the antibiotic intermediates and innovative research and development sectors [1] - The overall performance for the first half of 2024 aligns with expectations, with continuous improvement in cost control and profitability in the antibiotic intermediates business [1] - The company is seen as a model for traditional pharmaceutical companies transitioning to innovation, with significant potential for valuation enhancement [1] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.800 billion yuan, up 28.24% year-on-year [1] - The revenue breakdown includes: - Infusion products: 4.667 billion yuan, down 7.15% - Non-infusion pharmaceuticals: 2.020 billion yuan, up 6.38% - Antibiotic intermediates and raw materials: 3.273 billion yuan, up 38.09% - R&D project revenue: 1.387 billion yuan, up 32.95% - Overseas revenue: 1.874 billion yuan, up 14.97% [1] - R&D investment for the first half of 2024 was 1.078 billion yuan, accounting for 9.12% of revenue [1] Growth Drivers - The growth drivers include: 1. Improvement in the product structure of infusion products and expansion of non-infusion product clusters, leveraging centralized procurement to enhance market coverage and reduce sales expenses [1] 2. Significant growth in both volume and price for key raw materials, alongside effective cost reduction measures [1] 3. Increased overseas licensing revenue from innovative R&D projects, contributing significantly to net profit [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 anticipates net profits of 2.940 billion yuan, 3.230 billion yuan, and 3.830 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 19.6%, 10.0%, and 18.6% [2] - The expected EPS for the same period is 1.83 yuan, 2.02 yuan, and 2.39 yuan, with P/E ratios of 17X, 15X, and 13X respectively [2]