SuKen Agriculture(601952) 太平洋·2024-09-03 02:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next six months [44]. Core Viewpoints - The company is recognized as a leading integrated operator in the grain industry chain, with a mature operational system covering various segments including seed processing, grain planting, rice processing, and agricultural oil trading [2][5]. - The company has significant resource and cost advantages, which are expected to support the long-term development of its core business [2][19]. - Domestic grain prices are currently at a three-year low, but there is potential for a rebound, which could enhance the company's performance [2][19]. - The company has a strong dividend history, with a cumulative cash dividend of 2.29 billion yuan since its listing in 2017, reflecting a dividend yield of 3.28% in the past year [2][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Grain Industry Leader - The company operates a comprehensive grain industry chain, with products including raw grains, seeds, rice, and agricultural services. It has a well-established operational framework and has expanded its business through acquisitions [2][5][19]. - As of summer 2024, the company manages approximately 1.316 million acres of farmland, an increase of 34,000 acres from the previous year, primarily through long-term leases [2][7]. 2. Resource and Cost Advantages - The company benefits from a stable land lease agreement, with a rental price adjusted every five years, which was reduced to 361.64 yuan per acre per year in November 2021 [2][19]. - The company’s planting operations have shown strong yields, with wheat and barley yields significantly exceeding national averages [7][19]. 3. Market Conditions and Price Trends - Domestic grain prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to tightening supply-demand dynamics, influenced by adverse weather conditions affecting crop production [2][19]. - The report anticipates that as grain prices recover, the company's margins in raw grain planting and processing will improve [2][19]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.535 billion yuan and 11.674 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with net profits of 871 million yuan and 969 million yuan [2][44]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.63 yuan and 0.70 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [44].