YILI(600887) 国元证券·2024-09-03 06:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 599.15 billion yuan for H1 2024, a decrease of 9.49% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 75.31 billion yuan, an increase of 19.44% [3]. - The liquid milk and cold drink segments faced short-term pressure, but the growth of milk powder and dairy products accelerated [3]. - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company to be 116.72 billion yuan, 115.57 billion yuan, and 125.91 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from liquid milk, milk powder and dairy products, cold drinks, and other products was 368.87 billion yuan (-13.05%), 145.09 billion yuan (+7.31%), 73.22 billion yuan (-20.04%), and 4.06 billion yuan (+26.59%) respectively [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 34.78%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in milk prices [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2024 was 12.57%, up 3.04 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from the increase in gross margin and investment income [3]. Sales and Distribution - The number of distributors decreased by 909 in H1 2024 but saw a net increase of 157 in Q2 2024, indicating a recovery in distributor numbers [3]. - Revenue from the North China, South China, Central China, East China, and other regions in H1 2024 was 167.98 billion yuan, 147.06 billion yuan, 109.98 billion yuan, 90.84 billion yuan, and 75.39 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.05%, 11.93%, 11.11%, 13.77%, and 5.05% [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with projected net profits showing a year-on-year growth of 11.92% in 2024, a slight decline of 0.98% in 2025, and a rebound of 8.95% in 2026 [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the company's performance, particularly in the milk powder and dairy product segments, despite current challenges in the liquid milk and cold drink markets [3].