CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE-B(000625) 光大证券·2024-09-03 23:40Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - 1H24 revenue increased by 17.2% YoY to RMB 76.72 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 63.0% YoY to RMB 2.83 billion [2] - 2Q24 revenue increased by 28.3% YoY and 7.2% QoQ to RMB 39.7 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 145.1% YoY and 44.5% QoQ to RMB 1.67 billion [2] - Gross margin declined by 3.7 ppts YoY to 13.8% in 1H24, but improved significantly after adjusting for warranty cost reclassification [2] - Changan Ford's per-unit profit increased by 101.0% YoY to approximately RMB 16,000, while Avatr's per-unit loss narrowed to RMB 66,000 from RMB 157,000 in 2023 [2] - The company plans to launch new models under its Shenlan and Qiyuan brands in 2H24, with potential for increased sales due to Huawei's intelligent driving solutions [2] - Avatr's investment in Huawei's vehicle BU is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in intelligent vehicle technology [2] Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue: RMB 76.72 billion (+17.2% YoY) [2] - 1H24 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 2.83 billion (-63.0% YoY) [2] - 2Q24 revenue: RMB 39.7 billion (+28.3% YoY, +7.2% QoQ) [2] - 2Q24 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 1.67 billion (+145.1% YoY, +44.5% QoQ) [2] - 2024E net profit forecast maintained at RMB 8.09 billion, with 2025E and 2026E forecasts raised by 6.8% and 11.6% to RMB 9.83 billion and RMB 11.21 billion, respectively [2] Key Metrics - 2024E revenue growth: 11.59% [2] - 2024E net profit growth: -28.56% [2] - 2024E EPS: RMB 0.82 [2] - 2024E ROE: 10.57% [2] - 2024E P/E: 14.3x [2] - 2024E P/B: 1.5x [2] New Model Launches - Shenlan L07 (mid-size sedan) and S05 (compact SUV) to be launched in 2H24, with L07 featuring Huawei's intelligent driving solutions [2] - Qiyuan E07 (large SUV) to be launched in 2H24, featuring a unique design that combines SUV and pickup functionalities [2] - Avatr 07, Avatr 11/12 extended-range versions, and Avatr E16 (internal code) to be launched in 2H24 [2] Joint Venture Performance - Changan Mazda sales increased by 14.4% YoY to 37,000 units in 1H24 [2] - Changan Ford sales increased by 13.4% YoY to 112,000 units in 1H24 [2] - Avatr sales increased by 104.3% YoY to 21,000 units in 1H24 [2]