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中国太保:Steam ahead with doubled 2Q net profit and strong NBV uptrend; revise up TP
02601CPIC(02601) 招银国际·2024-09-05 03:12

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CPIC, with a revised target price of HK28.3,upfromHK28.3, up from HK24.8, indicating a potential upside of 37.7% from the current price of HK20.55[3][5].CoreInsightsCPICreportedarobust1H24performance,withanetprofitgrowthof37.120.55 [3][5]. Core Insights - CPIC reported a robust 1H24 performance, with a net profit growth of 37.1% YoY to RMB 25.1 billion, and a nearly doubled net profit of RMB 13.3 billion in 2Q24, outperforming peers in the Chinese insurance sector [2][8]. - The life insurance segment's new business value (NBV) increased by 22.8% YoY to RMB 9.0 billion in 1H24, supported by margin expansion and a favorable product mix [2][10]. - The property and casualty (P&C) segment improved its combined ratio (CoR) by 0.8 percentage points to 97.1% in 1H24, driven by a reduction in claims ratio [2][8]. Financial Performance - Group net profit for 1H24 reached RMB 25.1 billion, with life and P&C net profits growing 43.0% and 18.6% YoY, respectively [2][8]. - Total investment income surged by 46.5% YoY, with fair value gains increasing 2.93 times in 1H24, attributed to higher allocations in FVOCI equities and FVTPL assets [2][5]. - The life insurance revenue for 1H24 was RMB 137.0 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase YoY, while P&C insurance revenue rose by 4.2% YoY to RMB 93.1 billion [8][11]. Valuation Metrics - The report's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation indicates a target price of HK28.3, implying a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.48x and a price-to-book value (P/BV) of 0.89x for FY24E [5][7]. - The stock is currently trading at a P/EV of 0.31x and a P/BV of 0.64x, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][7]. Growth Projections - The report anticipates sustained mid-to-high teen growth in FY24E NBV, driven by margin expansion and a shift towards participating policies [2][5]. - The number of core agents stabilized at 60,000 in 1H24, contributing to a 21.5% YoY increase in agency NBV [2][10]. - Management expects traditional and participating products to balance in the product mix, with first-year premiums projected to maintain growth despite recent declines [2][11].