GemPharmatech (688046) 国元证券·2024-09-06 11:08Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 11.41 yuan [5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 3.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, a YoY increase of 15.1%, driven by new domestic capacity and overseas market expansion [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 763.38 million yuan, a slight YoY decrease of 1.6%, while non-GAAP net profit rose 10.7% YoY to 548.37 million yuan [1] - Q2 2024 revenue grew 17.8% YoY and 16.7% QoQ to 1.8 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing 0.7% YoY and 59.0% QoQ to 468.58 million yuan [1] - Overseas market revenue reached 621.409 million yuan, a 44.9% YoY increase, accounting for 18.26% of total revenue [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 23.04%, 23.01%, and 21.09% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth of 27.68%, 24.26%, and 23.41% [2] R&D and Product Development - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, focusing on projects such as the "Wild Mouse Plan," "Germ-Free and Gnotobiotic Mouse Plan," "Spot Mouse Plan," and "Drug Screening Mouse Plan" [2] - Over 25 wild mouse strains have been launched, with more than 100 strains in the pipeline, expected to complete initial screening of 80-100 strains by 2024 [2] - The "Spot Mouse Plan" has completed over 20,000 strains, with more than 200 new strains added in the reporting period, covering research areas such as tumors, metabolism, and immunology [2] - The "Drug Screening Mouse Plan" has nearly 600 strains on the market, covering most reported druggable targets [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 7.6557 billion yuan in 2024, 9.4173 billion yuan in 2025, and 11.4037 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.029 billion yuan in 2024, 2.5211 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.1113 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - EPS is forecasted at 0.49 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 0.76 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 9.02% in 2024 to 11.55% in 2026 [4] Market Performance - The stock price has shown significant volatility over the past year, with a 45% decline at its lowest point and a 24% increase at its peak [6] - The current P/E ratio is 23.06x for 2024, expected to decrease to 15.04x by 2026 [4]