CHINA RES GAS-华润燃气：居民顺价继续推动毛差修复，“两综”业务快速发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Resources Gas (01193 HK) [1][12] Core Views - Stable performance growth driven by gas sales volume increase and margin recovery [1] - Rapid development of "two comprehensive" businesses partially offsetting the impact of reduced connection business [1] - Significant increase in interim dividend payout [12] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 revenue reached HK $52 076 million (+7 7% YoY) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HK$ 3 457 million (-2 5% YoY) but increased 21 2% YoY excluding one-time gains from Chongqing Gas consolidation in 2023 [1] - Gas sales volume reached 20 9 billion cubic meters (+5 3% YoY) with gas sales margin of RMB 0 54/cubic meter (+RMB 0 04/cubic meter YoY) [1] Gas Sales Breakdown - Residential gas: 5 76 billion cubic meters (+7 0% YoY) accounting for 27 6% of total [1] - Industrial gas: 9 66 billion cubic meters (+3 7% YoY) accounting for 46 2% [1] - Commercial gas: 5 01 billion cubic meters (+8 1% YoY) accounting for 24 0% [1] - Vehicle gas: 0 47 billion cubic meters (-8 4% YoY) accounting for 2 2% [1] Pricing and Costs - Average gas sales price: RMB 3 48/cubic meter (-RMB 0 10/cubic meter YoY) [1] - Residential: RMB 2 67/cubic meter (+RMB 0 08/cubic meter YoY) [1] - Commercial/industrial: RMB 3 81/cubic meter (-RMB 0 18/cubic meter YoY) [1] - Vehicle: RMB 3 87/cubic meter (-RMB 0 17/cubic meter YoY) [1] - Average gas cost: RMB 2 94/cubic meter (-RMB 0 14/cubic meter YoY) [1] Business Segments Connection Business - Revenue decreased 29 1% YoY to HK $3 016 million accounting for 5 8% of total revenue [1] - Segment profit decreased 29 4% YoY to HK$ 1 124 million [1] Comprehensive Services - Revenue increased 20 0% YoY to HK $1 770 million [1] - Profit increased 22 1% YoY to HK$ 760 million [1] Comprehensive Energy - Revenue increased 38 0% YoY to HK $830 million [1] Financial Projections Revenue - 2024E: HK$ 106 726 million (+5% YoY) [3] - 2025E: HK $115 280 million (+8% YoY) [3] - 2026E: HK$ 122 481 million (+6% YoY) [3] Net Profit - 2024E: HK $5 641 million (+8% YoY) [3] - 2025E: HK$ 6 133 million (+9% YoY) [3] - 2026E: HK $6 629 million (+8% YoY) [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024E PE: 12X [12] - 2025E PE: 11X [12] - 2026E PE: 10X [12] Dividend Policy - Interim dividend: HK$ 0 25/share (+66 7% YoY) with payout ratio of 16 74% [12] - 2023 annual dividend: HK$1 16/share with payout ratio of 51 25% and yield of 4 5% [12] Industry Comparison - China Resources Gas shows higher growth potential compared to peers with 2024E-2026E EPS growth of 8%-9% [13] - The company maintains a relatively stable ROE of 12 9%-13 3% from 2024E-2026E [3]