YANKUANG ENERGY(600188) 德邦证券·2024-09-10 00:23Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - Yanzhou Coal Mining is a global energy leader with an integrated coal-based layout, focusing on coal production, deep processing, and comprehensive utilization [3] - The company has a dual-drive strategy for its coal business, with new capacity releases and existing capacity recovery, aiming for a long-term production target of 300 million tons [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining has significant price elasticity in its coal business, benefiting from both volume and price increases during upward cycles [3] - The company is extending its industrial chain into high-end chemical new materials, with a target of producing over 20 million tons of chemical products in 5-10 years [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining has optimized its asset structure and demonstrated strong shareholder value through its dividend policy, with a 60% payout ratio of net profit after statutory reserves [3] Market Performance - Yanzhou Coal Mining's stock price has underperformed the CSI 300 index over the past three months, with an absolute decline of 23.70% and a relative decline of 13.04% [2] Financial Highlights - In H1 2024, Yanzhou Coal Mining reported revenue of 72.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.64% [3] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 150 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.6% [5] - Yanzhou Coal Mining's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.49, 1.66, and 1.72 yuan, respectively [4] Coal Business - Yanzhou Coal Mining's coal production capacity is approximately 245 million tons, with new projects like Wanfu Mine and Wucaiwan No. 4 Open-pit Mine expected to contribute additional capacity [3] - The company's coal sales structure is highly elastic, with coal prices increasing by 69% and 36% in 2021 and 2022, respectively [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining's coal production is expected to reach 140 million tons in 2024, with a long-term target of 300 million tons [3] Chemical Business - Yanzhou Coal Mining has established five high-end chemical parks, with chemical product output reaching 8.59 million tons in 2023 [3] - The company aims to produce over 20 million tons of chemical products annually in the next 5-10 years [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining is the only company in China with both low-temperature and high-temperature Fischer-Tropsch synthesis technologies, leading in methanol and acetic acid production [37] Dividend Policy - Yanzhou Coal Mining has committed to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 60% of net profit after statutory reserves for 2023-2025 [3] - In 2023, the company distributed a cash dividend of 11.5 billion yuan, with a dividend yield of 10% for A-shares and 16% for H-shares [3] Valuation - Yanzhou Coal Mining's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 8.83, 7.91, and 7.63 times, respectively [50] - The company's valuation is lower than peers like Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Shenhua, and China Coal Energy [51]